Bitcoin and Iran: between the devil and the deep blue sea

With the so-called “nuclear deal” in place, the sanctions on Iran have been lifted. I do not believe for a second that there really was a nuclear issue. It was just a flimsy pretext for public consumption. It allowed putting Iran under quite a bit of pressure. This pretext will be used again. It is not clear what the real reason was for the international stabbing fest at Iran but neither party seems to be interested in telling us.

How do we know something was seriously wrong with the story? It looked like this:

Prosecutor: You have not proven to us that you did not eat shrimp!
Iran: But I didn’t.
Prosecutor: We think you did. Not sure, but we suspect you. Open your mouth, we will check!
Iran: No, I don’t want to open my mouth.
Prosecutor: That is because you do not want to admit the truth. You have eaten shrimp!
Iran: No, I haven’t …

Iran had to be severely punished for not being able to prove a negative.

It is exactly the same scenario as with Saddam Hussein who was unable to prove that he did not have weapons of mass destruction. Even though it is impossible to prove a negative, it is still very possible to invade Iraq for it.

Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, probably realizes that he can make a history-changing decision.

khamenei

Now that the financial sanctions have been lifted, Iran could of course just start trading again using the international banking system. But then again, Khamenei also knows that doing so, is just an accident waiting to happen. They obviously still want Iran by the balls and that has nothing to do with Iran being unable to prove a negative.

The regime in Teheran likes centralizing statist economic control. In that respect, they look more like communists than like islamists. The cornerstone of statist control is, of course, the control of the emission of fiat paper currency. At the same time, Khamenei probably realizes that he could mortally wound his enemies — the international fiat banking system — by selling Iranian oil for bitcoins. It would cause a nervous breakdown in those quarters. He probably knows that it is him who has the international banks by the balls now, and not the other way around. If Khamenei breaks ranks with statist-controlled countries, the international banking system will lose all hope of ever getting rid of bitcoin. The defeat will be total.

How do you make 10+ billion dollars out of this? You just pull another George Soros on the situation.

[1] You borrow 2 billion dollars in US dollars in short-term loans
[2] Then, Khamenei announces that Iran will be trading its oil for bitcoins
[3] Then, you sell back your coins for 12+ billion dollars and pay off your short-term loans, while pocketing 10+ billion US dollars in profits

The bitcoin situation is full of money and other Soros opportunities. If you know 10 minutes before anybody else that a country is about to break ranks with the statist league, and you have enough credit, you can make an unthinkable amount of money.

Of course, my own bitcoin holdings would just go through the roof again. In fact, they recently did. Because of the one or the other nondescript situation in China, they went from 250 to 350. However, that is not the real stuff. It is nothing compared to the effect of someone pulling a serious Soros somewhere.

The statist league is extremely corrupt, but some people in it are actually quite smart. The first one to move, will make the biggest profits. They are not just going to leave money on the table. They can make excellent cash and who cares that it sinks the other statists?

Under the assumption that I just do what is best for me, I expect everybody else to do what is best for them. In those circumstances, Bitcoin is a one-way bet.

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eriksank

I mostly work on an alternative bitcoin marketplace -and exchange applications. I am sometimes available for new commercial projects but rather unlikely right now.

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